Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Demond Williams (Wash) 239.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
In the last four games Williams only failed to throw for 240 yards once which was against Michigan. He now faces a Wisconsin pass defense that gives up 8.1 yards/pass attempt and this passing match up earned a B+ fantasy match up grade.
RB Jeremiyah Love (ND) 18.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
Love has been held under 19 carries in four of his last five games. The one exception was the USC game which was a competitive contest. This week’s game with Navy won’t be competitive and I see Love getting pulled from the game early.
WR Eric McAlister (TCU) 83.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over the past three games McAlister has gone for 100+ receiving yards twice. He’s facing a banged up Iowa State defense that has several key players out of action. My passing match up grade came out to a B+ and my formula can’t take the defensive injuries into account.
MAIN BETS
QB Darian Mensah (Duke) 293.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Mensah has thrown for over 300 yards in his last two games and I think that trend should continue this week against UConn. Vegas expects Duke to score 37 points which means the offense should be clicking, and my passing match up grade came out to a B+.
QB Julian Sayin (OSU) 293.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Sayin has been playing some of his best football lately. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in three of his last four games. His passing match up is a B+ this week against Purdue. The Boilermakers are giving up 8.8 yards/pass attempt which is really good for Sayin.
QB Ty Simpson (Bama) 272.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
You would have to go back to October 4th to find a game where Simpson threw for 270+ yards. His passing match up grade came out to a B- which is good for Simpson, but the LSU defense is only giving up 6.3 yards/pass attempt. I’m more worried by the bad yardage allowed in this one.
QB Joe Fagnano (UConn) 272.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Last week Fagnano was held to 267 yards passing, breaking a three game streak of throwing for 300+ yards. I think he bounces back this week against Duke. He received an A- passing match up grade and Duke’s defense gives up 8.8 yards/pass attempt.
RB Emmett Johnson (Neb) 105.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Johnson has rushed for 120+ yards in three of his last four games. Last week Nebraska lost their starting QB for the season so you can expect the coaching staff have the offense lean on Johnson even more. They face UCLA who gives up 5.1 yards/carry and Nebraska gets a B+ grade for this rushing match up.
RB Chauncey Bowens (UGA) 52.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Since the Alabama game Bowen’s workload has fluctuated but he has run for 60+ yards in four of those five games. While Mississippi State is improved on defense this year, they are giving up 4.3 yards/carry and I handed Bowens a B+ rushing match up grade.
RB Jaden Baugh (Fla) 16.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Baugh’s been getting a good workload lately, receiving 18+ carries in three of his last four games (23+ carries in two of those). The match ups for Florida are average this week both in the air and on the ground. One of my new advanced stats I’m testing shows that the ground game should be better.
RB King Miller (USC) 19.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
I can make this one very short. Miller has received EXACTLY 18 carries in every game he’s played in. This looks obvious to me that the coaches are trying to keep him healthy.
WR Skyler Bell (UConn) 112.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Bell has been red hot over the last three games, racking up 125+ yards in each of them. As I mentioned earlier about Fagnano, UConn received an A- passing match up grade and Duke’s defense gives up 8.8 yards/pass attempt.
WR Omarino Miller (Colo) Anytime TD
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Yes
This took me by surprise, Miller has scored at least 1 TD in three of his last four games. Colorado is done with musical chairs at the QB position and they are leaning on freshman Julian Lewis. I think these two can connect once against West Virginia who is giving up 2 passing TDs per game.
WR Jeremiah Smith (OSU) 84.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Smith has exceeded 90 receiving yards in each of his last two games. This week he gets Purdue and I see the passing match up being better for the Buckeyes than the rushing match up. His passing match up is a B+ this week against Purdue. The Boilermakers are giving up 8.8 yards/pass attempt.
WR Jordan Napier (SDSU) 73.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
In Napier’s last two games he’s had less than 45 yards in each, but the two games before that he had 100+ yards in each. The key thing I’ve found is that he’s super reliant on breaking big plays. Last week he had 4 receptions for 43 yards, but his longest reception was 22 yards. Hus passing match up grade came out to a C- this week and I don’t want to put faith in him busting one or more big ones.