Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Brendan Sorsby (Cin) 252.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Sorsby has been on a cold streak the last two weeks, only throwing for 214 and 191 yards. My fantasy match up grades for those two games were a B and a C+. This week he gets an A+ fantasy match up grade and Oklahoma State is giving up a whopping 9.4 yards/pass attempt.
RB Jonah Coleman (Wash) 62.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Under
Over the last four games Coleman has only reached this prop’s yardage mark one time. Now he travels to Michigan for a game where I handed out a B- fantasy match up grade. Coleman would need to average 4.2 yards/carry on a 15 carry workload to win this prop, and Michigan is giving up 3.1 yards/carry.
WR Elijah Sarratt (Ind) 88.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Against Power 4 opponents Sarratt has racked up 92, 132, and 121 passing yards. These games were against quality defenses. My fantasy match up grade is an A+ for this game with Michigan State and the Spartans are giving up 7.6 yards/pass attempt.
MAIN BETS
QB Sawyer Robertson (Bayl) 311.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Robertson has passed for 345+ yards in 4/6 games this season, all of which were against Power 4 opponents. I love the match up with the TCU pass defense, giving it an A+ fantasy match up grade. TCU giving up 7.9 yards/pass attempt is a pretty good advanced stat that supports taking the over.
QB Mason Heintschel (Pitt) 274.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Heintschel only has two starts under his belt against Florida State and Boston College. In those two games he has thrown for 321 and 323 yards. Now he faces a poor Syracuse pass defense who presents an A- fantasy match up grade.
QB LaNorris Sellers (SCar) 189.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
Sellers has thrown for more 190+ passing yards a total of two times this season. To say his play has been disappointing would be an understatement. While he does get Oklahoma at home this week, my fantasy match up grade for this game is a D-. A very bad advanced stat for this match up is that Oklahoma is only giving up 5.1 yards/pass attempt.
QB Mason Heintschel (Pitt) 30.5 Pass Attempts
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
When you break down the passing attempts of Heintschel’s two starts he has put up 29 and 41 (35 pass attempt average). I mentioned how I gave the passing fantasy match up an A- grade. When you look at the rushing side of things, Syracuse only has a C rushing fantasy match up grade. I see the Pitt offense leaning on the passing game in this one.
RB Cameron Dickey (TxTch) 79.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Dickey has seen his workload increase over the last two weeks, getting 21 carries in each game. That has resulted in him posting 98 and 263 rushing yards in those games. Quarterback Behren Morton is still banged up and Arizona State presents a B+ rushing fantasy match up grade for this week. Expect Dickey’s workload to remain high for another game.
RB Gavin Sawchuk (FlaSt) 60.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over the last four games Sawchuk has posted yardage totals of 97, 74, 47, & 71 yards. The 47 yard performance was against Miami in a tough fought rivalry game. This week brings Stanford and a modest fantasy match up grade of a B. I do like that Stanford is giving up 4.1 yards/carry on the season.
RB LJ Martin (BYU) 17.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
This week’s match up with Utah heavily favors the rushing game. When it comes to fantasy match up grades BYU has a D grade for the passing game but a B grade for the running game. Even though Martin is averaging 16.8 carries/game on the season, he has posted 25 and 21 carries in his last two games.
RB Rueben Owens (TxAM) 17.5 Rushing Attempts
Confidence - Above Average
Bet Suggestion - Over
Owens is filling in for an injured Le’Veon Moss. Over the last two weeks Owens has received 21 and 17 carries. The fantasy match up for this week is perfect with an A grade, which should help ensure that Owens keeps getting fed the football.
WR Eric McAlister (TCU) 75.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
If you remove the Arizona State game (was injured early in that contest) you’ll see that McAlister has produced 254, 65, and 156 receiving yards in his last three games. He’s been red hot and You have to believe that he’ll continue to produce in a game this week where he has an A- fantasy match up grade.
WR Makai Lemon (USC) 6.5 Receptions
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Lemon has been a stud over his last three games racking up 8, 11, & 9 receptions. He travels to Notre Dame this week and the USC passing game matches up slightly better than their running game.
WR Skyler Bell (UConn) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Over the last three games Bell has scored a TD in each game, and four total in that timespan. He takes on Boston College this week and their defense is giving up more passing TDs per game than they are giving up rushing TDs. With BC giving up 2 passing TDs/game and Vegas calling on UConn to score 27 points, I find it hard to imagine Bell being held scoreless Saturday.
WR Jeremiah Smith (OSU) 5.5 Receptions
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Over Smith’s last four games he has posted 7+ receptions in 3/4 games. He missed that mark last week against Illinois but I see that changing this week against Wisconsin. When it comes to fantasy match up grades the passing game has a B+ grade while the rushing game only has a C+ grade.
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