Purple Reign takes a look at player prop bets and provides his evaluations on props that have caught his eye. While there is no guarantees in sports betting, Joe Arpasi looks to provide insight on wagers that he believes have a higher chance for success or failure. Please remember to bet responsibly.
BONUS BETS
While premium subscribers get access to all the prop bets that Joe Arpasi has identified, these “bonus bet” suggestions are free for everyone to review.
QB Mark Gronowski (Iowa) 154.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
Last week’s game against Iowa State was the most competitive game Iowa has had, and they still insisted on not throwing the football. Gronowski threw for 83 in that game, and 44 yards in the season opener. Take the under bet here for some free money.
RB Waymond Jordan (USC) 85.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
So far this season Jordan is averaging 10 yards/carry playing against teams like Georgia Southern and Missouri State. Yes Purdue is tougher competition but Jordan will still have his way with this defense. last week the coaches fed Jordan 16 carries and I see that trend continuing this week.
WR Harrison Wallace (Miss) 68.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
It won’t take Wallace very many receptions to hit this yardage total when he’s averaging 27.4 yards/reception. In two games this season he has racked up 117 and 130 yards. He was dealing with an injury but he has been removed from this week’s injury report.
MAIN BETS
QB Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) 279.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Under
So far LSU has played Louisiana Tech and Clemson. In those games Nussmeier has yet to hit 240 passing yards. Florida won’t be a cake walk and I doubt we’ll see LSU suddenly take off in the air better than they did against Louisiana Tech. Nussmeier had 4 pass attempts in that game so it wasn’t a “grind it on the ground” type of gameplan.
QB Jayden Maiava (USC) 271.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Last week’s contest against Georgia Southern Maiava threw the ball just 24 times but put up 412 yards in the air. I can see USC looking to jump out to an early lead on the road and trying to make the Purdue offense one dimensional which will be a good thing for Maiava’s passing stats.
QB John Mateer (Okla) 278.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Against a quality opponent in Michigan Mateer came up 9 yards short of hitting this prop amount. Now he goes up against Temple who will not put up the same fight like we saw from the Wolverines. This is an “easy money” prop you should jump on.
QB Dylan Lonergan (BC) 242.5 Passing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
Speaking of “easy money,” I love this prop. Lonergan has exceed this prop amount in every game this season. Michigan State was a quality win last week where he threw for 390 yards. Stanford’s defense is not in the same class as Michigan State.
RB Desmond Reid (Pitt) 35.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Over
You can be sure that the Pitt coaching staff will be featuring Reid in this year’s Backyard Brawl. Last week Reid had 5 receptions for 69 yards against Central Michigan. West Virginia will be fired up after last week’s loss but I don’t think they have enough talent to keep Reid below this yardage mark.
RB Cartevious Norton (SoFl) 26.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
In two games Norton had compiled 13 carries for 39 yards. He’s never had more than 7 carries or 24 yards in a single game. With this small of a workload going up against a Miami team that will likely force South Florida to throw the ball more, its highly unlikely we see Norton do anything on the ground.
RB J’Koby Williams (TxTch) 93.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
Williams is another running back who hasn’t seen a large workload yet. In his two games he’s gotten 9 and 6 carries and never rushed for more than 56 yards. This prop mark is just way too high and makes this something you can take advantage of.
RB Devin Mockobee (Pur) 63.5 Rushing Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Under
I mentioned before I can see USC coming out firing and building an early multi-TD lead. This will force the Purdue offense to abandon the rushing game and leave Mockobee on the short end of the stick. I also believe that USC’s front seven will hold him to far less than the 4 yards/carry that he is averaging on the season.
WR Mario Craver (TxAM) Anytime TD
Confidence - High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Through two games Craver has pulled in 5 and 8 receptions and turned that into 3 TDs. He’s scored in every game this season, and Notre Dame’s secondary showed against Miami that they can be taken advantage of. I just think it way too tall of an order to expect the Irish to keep him out of the end zone this week.
WR Reggie Virgil (TxTch) Anytime TD
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
While playing lesser opponents Virgil has scored in every game this season. Oregon State will be a tougher match-up, but also one where the Texas Tech will remain closer in score in the second half. Oregon State won’t be able to contain all the offensive weapons Tech has at their disposal.
WR Coy Eakin (TxTch) Anytime TD
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Yes
Take everything I said above, and repeat it hear. Eakin has also scored in every game this season.
WR Deion Burks (Okla) 68.5 Receiving Yards
Confidence - Very High
Bet Suggestion - Over
This is just a criminal prop mark to make. Burks has put up 88 and 101 receiving yards this season. Vegas really thinks that Temple of all teams will hold him to less? Yeah right.